Prediction of Aziz Ouakaa vs Kelsey Stevenson at Soma Bay Challenger 11-16-25

• How do second serve stats compare? Aziz Ouakaa has recently won 43.02% of second serve points, whereas Kelsey Stevenson has not won any.
• How effective are they at returning serves? Aziz Ouakaa has recently won 47.64% of opponent's second serve points and 31.41% of first serve returns, while Kelsey Stevenson has won 0% in both categories.
• Aziz Ouakaa is stronger under pressure, saving 50.15% of breakpoints, while Kelsey Stevenson has saved none.
• In terms of match outcomes over the past year, Aziz Ouakaa has a 50.00% win rate, compared to Kelsey Stevenson's 55.56%.
• Both players perform best on hard courts with identical winning percentages of 43%, though neither excels particularly on indoor hard surfaces.
• Aziz Ouakaa has a slight edge in experience, with more matches played at the Futures/ITF level.
• Kelsey Stevenson has won their only previous meeting, but Aziz took one of the three sets played.
• Aziz Ouakaa has faced higher-ranked opponents, playing against opponents with an average rank of 85.19, compared to Kelsey's 22.11.
• Aziz has been more successful in deciding sets over the last 12 months, winning 57% as opposed to Kelsey's 0%.
• Aziz Ouakaa's breakpoint conversion rate stands at 39.91% recently, while Kelsey has converted none of his opportunities.

Editorial Prediction (November 16, 2025, UTC):

Given Aziz Ouakaa’s superior performance in recent serve and return statistics, he demonstrates a clear advantage in executing and converting critical match situations. His consistent breakpoint saving and conversion rates highlight his capability in high-pressure scenarios.

Kelsey Stevenson, though having previously won their sole head-to-head match, has shown significant weaknesses lately, especially in converting and saving crucial points. His performance on hard courts might situate them evenly with Aziz regarding surface preference, but the latter’s recent form and opponent caliber indicate an edge.

Aziz’s ability to perform under pressure, particularly in deciding sets, further solidifies his likelihood of prevailing in this match, assuming similar trends continue. Aziz Ouakaa is the favored candidate to win this upcoming encounter.